Forecasting the demand for logistics human resources in the period 2018 - 2030 The demand for logistics human resources for the entire industry in a certain period can be calculated according to the following formula: Dlog = N xnx (1 + d)t In which, Dlog: is demand for logistics human resources in a period N: is the number of businesses in the industry n: is the average size of logistics human resources at an enterprise d: is the average growth rate of human resources in a period t: time of One stage The demand for logistics human resources for the entire industry comes from two sides, including the needs of logistics service businesses and the needs of production and business businesses.
Human resource needs of logistics service businesses
According to data published in the VLA Logistics White Book 2018, if in 2016 the number of logistics service businesses in Vietnam was 22,366, by 2018, this number corresponds to about 30,971 businesses, an increase of 30%. Of these, there are currently 12,025 logistics enterprises with less than 5 people (accounting for 38.83%); 8,400 enterprises have from 5 to 9 people (27.12%); 8,781 enterprises have from 10 - 49 people (28.35%); 1,385 enterprises have from 50 - 199 people (4.47%); 152 enterprises have from 200 - 299 people (0.49%); 114 enterprises have from 300 - 499 people (0.37%); 74 enterprises have from 500 - 999 people (0.24%); 32 enterprises have from 1000 - 4999 people (0.1%) and 8 enterprises have over 5000 people (0.03%).
Based on these statistics, it can be estimated that the average human resource size at Vietnamese logistics service enterprises is about 20 people/enterprise. The average growth rate of human resources at Vietnamese logistics enterprises is about 7.5%; lower than the industry's overall growth rate of 12% - 14% in 2018 due to excluding the ability to apply technology as well as improve management efficiency of businesses. Therefore, with: • The number of Vietnamese logistics service enterprises is N = 30,971 • The average human resource size is n = 20 • The growth rate in human resources d = 7.5% over a period of t = 13 years Then the human resource needs of logistics service businesses in the period from 2018 to 2030 will be: 30,971 x 20 x (1 + 0.075)13 = 1,585,971 (people)(*) 4.2.1.2.
Human resource needs of production and business enterprises According to data from the General Statistics Office released at the "Press conference announcing the main indicators to evaluate the level of enterprise development of provinces and cities under Central Government in 2017 and the period 2010 - 2016" on February 6, 2018, the total number of actual enterprises operating nationwide as of December 31, 2017 is N = 561,064 enterprises. In general, if production and business enterprises have an average scale of 100 employees, they need at least 4 logistics workers (import and export management, purchasing, warehouse, transportation and distribution). In other words, the proportion of logistics human resources at production and business enterprises is 4%.
According to data from the General Statistics Office, as of January 1, 2017, the average size of Vietnam's production and business enterprises reached 27.7 people/1 enterprise. Therefore, as of September 2018, the average scale of Vietnam's production and business enterprises can reach about 30 employees/1 enterprise, the rate of logistics training (or close to logistics) is 50. %, the current number of logistics workers needing training is: N xn = 561,064 x (30 x 0.04 x 0.5) = 336,638 (people).
With the trend of increasing the proportion of outsourcing, from 35 - 40% currently to 50 - 60% in the near future (according to Decision 200), the growth rate of logistics human resources of production and business enterprises will not be high. , estimated at about 5%/year, in the period 2018 - 2030 (13 years), Vietnamese production and business enterprises need more logistics human resources: 336,638 x (1 + 0.05)13 = 634,781 ( People).
Thus, it is estimated that in the period 2018 - 2030, the total demand for logistics human resources of Vietnamese businesses (including both logistics service businesses and production and business businesses) is: Dlog = (*) + (**) = 1,585,971 + 634,781 = 2,220,752 (people) 4.2.1.2.
Survey on logistics human resource needs at businesses Survey results on logistics human resource needs at Vietnamese production and business enterprises and logistics service businesses show that 81% of businesses have development plans logistics human resources next year. Of these, 33.3% of businesses plan to simultaneously increase both the scale and quality of human resources; 28.6% of businesses plan to increase training and improve human resource quality; 19% of businesses plan to increase the size of their human resources.
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